report/src/alarm.ail

   1 prob earthquake: 1/(365 + 0.25 + 0.01 + 0.0025).
   2 prob burglar:  1/(365 + 0.25 + 0.01 + 0.0025).
   3
   4 % P(i1 | earthquake):.
   5 i1 <- earthquake & i1WhenEartquake.
   6 prob i1WhenEartquake: 0.2.
   7 i1 <- ~earthquake & i1WhenNotEartquake.
   8 prob i1WhenNotEartquake: 0.
   9
  10 % P(i2 | burglar):.
  11 i2 <- burglar & i2WhenBurglar .
  12 prob i2WhenBurglar: 0.95.
  13 i2 <- ~burglar & i2WhenNotBurglar.
  14 prob i2WhenNotBurglar: 0.
  15
  16 % P(alarm | i1, i2):.
  17 alarm <- i1 & i2 & i1i2both.
  18 prob i1i2both: 1.
  19 alarm <- ~i1 & i2 & i1i2i2.
  20 prob i1i2i2: 1.
  21 alarm <- i1 & ~i2 & i1i2i1.
  22 prob i1i2i1: 1.
  23 alarm <- i1 & ~i2 & i1i2none.
  24 prob i1i2none: 0.
  25
  26 % P(gibbons calls | alarm).
  27 gibbons <- alarm & gibbonsWhenalarm.
  28 prob gibbonsWhenalarm: 0.99.
  29 gibbons <- ~alarm & gibbonsWhenNoalarm.
  30 prob gibbonsWhenNoalarm: 0.04.
  31
  32 % P(watson calls | alarm).
  33 watson <- alarm & watsonWhenalarm.
  34 prob watsonWhenalarm: 0.8.
  35 watson <- ~alarm & watsonWhenNoalarm.
  36 prob watsonWhenNoalarm: 0.4.
  37
  38 % P(radio | earthquake).
  39 radio <- earthquake & radioWhenEarthquake.
  40 prob radioWhenEarthquake: 0.9998.
  41 radio <- ~earthquake & radioWhenNoEarthquake.
  42 prob radioWhenNoEarthquake: 0.0002.