report/src/alarm.ail

   1 prob earthquake: 1/(365 + 0.25 + 0.01 + 0.0025)
   2 prob burglar:  1/(365 + 0.25 + 0.01 + 0.0025)
   3
   4 % P(i1 | earthquake):
   5 i1 <- earthquake & i1WhenEartquake
   6 prob i1WhenEartquake: 0.2
   7 i1 <- ~earthquake & i1WhenNotEartquake
   8 prob i1WhenNotEartquake: 0
   9
  10 % P(i2 | burglar):
  11 i2 <- burglar & i2WhenBurglar
  12 prob i2WhenBurglar: 0.95
  13 i2 <- ~burglar & i2WhenNotBurglar
  14 prob i2WhenNotBurglar: 0
  15
  16 % P(Alarm | i1, i2):
  17 Alarm <- i1 & i2 & i1i2both
  18 prob i1i2both: 1
  19 Alarm <- ~i1 & i2 & i1i2i2
  20 prob i1i2i2: 1
  21 Alarm <- i1 & ~i2 & i1i2i1
  22 prob i1i2i1: 1
  23 Alarm <- i1 & ~i2 & i1i2none
  24 prob i1i2none: 0
  25
  26 % P(Gibbons calls | Alarm)
  27 Gibbons <- Alarm & GibbonsWhenAlarm
  28 prob GibbonsWhenAlarm: 0.99
  29 Gibbons <- ~Alarm & GibbonsWhenNoAlarm
  30 prob GibbonsWhenNoAlarm: 0.04
  31
  32 % P(Watson calls | Alarm)
  33 Watson <- Alarm & WatsonWhenAlarm
  34 prob WatsonWhenAlarm: 0.8
  35 Watson <- ~Alarm & WatsonWhenNoAlarm
  36 prob WatsonWhenNoAlarm: 0.4
  37
  38 % P(Radio | earthquake)
  39 Radio <- earthquake & RadioWhenEarthquake
  40 prob RadioWhenEarthquake: 0.9998
  41 Radio <- ~earthquake & RadioWhenNoEarthquake
  42 prob RadioWhenNoEarthquake: 0.0002