report/src/burglary.ail

   1 % Initial working probabilities
   2 prob joe: 5/7.
   3 prob william: 5/7.
   4 prob jack: 5/7.
   5 prob averall: 5/7.
   6
   7 % Dependencies between burglars
   8 burglary <- joe & jack.
   9 burglary <- joe & william.
  10 burglary <- joe & william & jack.
  11 burglary <- joe & william & jack & averall.
  12
  13 % Probabilities that holmes will be hit
  14 prob holmes1: 1/10000.
  15 prob holmes2: (9999/10000)*1/9999.
  16 prob holmes3: (9999/10000)*(9998/9999)*(1/9998).
  17 holmes <- burglary & holmes1.
  18 holmes <- burglary & holmes2.
  19 holmes <- burglary & holmes3.