% Initial working probabilities
prob joe: 5/7.
prob william: 5/7.
prob jack: 5/7.
prob averall: 5/7.

% Dependencies between burglars
burglary <- joe & jack.
burglary <- joe & william.
burglary <- joe & william & jack.
burglary <- joe & william & jack & averall.

% Probabilities that holmes will be hit
prob holmes1: 1/10000.
prob holmes2: (9999/10000)*1/9999.
prob holmes3: (9999/10000)*(9998/9999)*(1/9998).
holmes <- burglary & holmes1.
holmes <- burglary & holmes2.
holmes <- burglary & holmes3.