margo, please 80 chars breed

[ker2014-2.git] / report / src / burglary.ail

diff --git a/report/src/burglary.ail b/report/src/burglary.ail
index d9df5ac..3ae26a9 100644 (file)
--- a/report/src/burglary.ail
+++ b/report/src/burglary.ail
@@ -1,9 +1,19 @@
+% Initial working probabilities
 prob joe: 5/7.
 prob william: 5/7.
 prob jack: 5/7.
 prob averall: 5/7.
 
+% Dependencies between burglars
 burglary <- joe & jack.
 burglary <- joe & william.
 burglary <- joe & william & jack.
 burglary <- joe & william & jack & averall.
+
+% Probabilities that holmes will be hit
+prob holmes1: 1/10000.
+prob holmes2: (9999/10000)*1/9999.
+prob holmes3: (9999/10000)*(9998/9999)*(1/9998).
+holmes <- burglary & holmes1.
+holmes <- burglary & holmes2.
+holmes <- burglary & holmes3.