-
\chapter{Probabilistic representation and reasoning (and burglars)}
\section{Bayesian network and the conditional probability tables}
\begin{figure}[H]
\caption{Bayesian network, visual representation}
\centering
- %\includegraphics[scale=0.5]{d1.eps}
+ \includegraphics[scale=0.5]{d1.eps}
\end{figure}
-\strut\\
+
+We introduced a \textit{Noisy OR} to represent the causal independence of
+\textit{Burglar} and \textit{Earthquake} on Alarm. Probabilities for the causes
+of the alarm are calculated using days, in practice this means that the
+smallest discrete time interval is one day. The calculation for the probability
+of a burglar is then calculated with the following formula(taking leap years
+into account and assuming a standard gregorian calendar).
+$$\frac{1}{365 + 0.25 - 0.01 - 0.0025}=\frac{1}{365.2425}$$
+
+This gives the following probability distributions\\
\begin{tabular}{|l|ll|}
\hline
- & \multicolumn{2}{c|}{Radio}\\
- Earthquake & T & F\\
+ & \multicolumn{2}{c|}{Earthquake}\\
\hline
- T & $0.9998$ & $0.0002$\\
- F & $0.0002$ & $0.9998$\\
+ T & $0.0027$ & $0.9972$ \\
+ F & $0.9973$ & $0.0027$\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
%
+\begin{tabular}{|l|ll|}
+ \hline
+ & \multicolumn{2}{c|}{Burglar}\\
+ \hline
+ T & $0.0027$ & $0.9973$ \\
+ F & $0.9973$ & $0.0027$\\
+ \hline
+\end{tabular}
+
\begin{tabular}{|l|ll|}
\hline
& \multicolumn{2}{c|}{$I_1$}\\
F & $0$ & $1$\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
-%
\begin{tabular}{|l|ll|}
\hline
& \multicolumn{2}{c|}{$I_2$}\\
F & $0$ & $1$\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
-%
\begin{tabular}{|ll|ll|}
\hline
- && \multicolumn{2}{c|}{Burglar}\\
- i1 & i2 & T & F\\
+ && \multicolumn{2}{c|}{Alarm}\\
+ $I_1$ & $I_2$ & T & F\\
\hline
T & T & $1$ & $0$\\
T & F & $1$ & $0$\\
F & F & $0$ & $1$\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
-%
+
\begin{tabular}{|l|ll|}
\hline
& \multicolumn{2}{c|}{Watson}\\
F & $0.4$ & $0.6$\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
-%
\begin{tabular}{|l|ll|}
\hline
& \multicolumn{2}{c|}{Gibbons}\\
T & $0.99$ & $0.01$\\
F & $0.04$ & $0.96$\\
\hline
-\end{tabular}
+\end{tabular}
+\begin{tabular}{|l|ll|}
+ \hline
+ & \multicolumn{2}{c|}{Radio}\\
+ Earthquake & T & F\\
+ \hline
+ T & $0.9998$ & $0.0002$\\
+ F & $0.0002$ & $0.9998$\\
+ \hline
+\end{tabular}